Therefore Strategic Technology Services
In 1965 Gordon Moore, the co-founder of Intel, observed that the number of transistors per square inch on integrated circuits had doubled every year since the integrated circuit was invented. Moore predicted that this trend would continue for the foreseeable future.
In subsequent years, the pace slowed down a bit, but data density has doubled approximately every 18 months, and this is the current definition of Moore's Law, which Moore himself has blessed.
The simplified version of this law states that the overall processing powers of computers will double every 18 months.
If you were to look at
processor speeds from the 1970’s to 2009 and then again in 2010, one may think
that the law is nearing its limit. However, a careful look indicates
otherwise. In the 1970’s processor speeds ranged from 740 KHz to 8MHz ...
Moore's Law held true. At the face of it, from 2000 to 2009 there has not
been much speed advancement. Processor speeds have ranged from 1.3 GHz to 2.8
GHz, barely doubling. The transistor count however tells a different story. In
2000 the number of transistors in a CPU numbered 37.5 million, while in 2009
the number went up to 904 million. The issue at hand is connected to the
introduction of multi-core CPUs. The 2.8 GHz processor is a Quad Core while the
1.3 GHz processor is a Single Core. The actual power of the 2.8 GHz
processor would be found if you multiply by four, which would give you a
whopping 11.2 GHz, which is a far cry from 1.3 GHz.
Most experts, including Moore himself, expect Moore's Law to hold for at least another two decades. Fascinating times ahead indeed.
What is the practical take out from Moore’s Law?
By
inference, Moore’s Law could be read another way … your value for money from
computer purchases made will double every 18 months. My thinking is that Moore’s
Law tells us to use your existing computer hardware for as long as practically possible. Naturally, you need to ensure that you always have sufficient processing capacity to
meet the needs of your business, so I am not in any way encouraging
irresponsible behaviour here! The reality stands, the more that you delay the
purchase, the more value for money you will be buying. Make those computing assets work. When the time does come that you make a
purchase of computing equipment, go for the fastest kit that you can get your
hands on. This will ensure that you extract maximum value from your IT expenditure.
I have of late been reading the Neil Young autobiography - Waging Heavy Peace. As a heads up, if you are a Neil Young fan, it’s a thoroughly enjoyable read. In Waging Heavy Peace, Young raises the impact that the introduction of the MP3 format has had on the music industry. Coupled with the Internet as a distribution model, the MP3 format has seen the music industry literally fall off a cliff.
Playing different tunes
Generally speaking, the traditional players in the music industry have not kept pace with the shift in technology. New innovative entrants, such as iTunes, have filled the vacuum and redefined the industry, leaving the legacy players fighting for their very existence. The legacy players have literally found themselves being new entrants into their own market. New business models are being hastily introduced, with varying degrees of success. The relatively strong are buying the weak. We are seeing a whole series of poorly considered “knee jerk” reactions and bankruptcies. The music industry is currently at a cross roads … only the strong will survive, and the strong may well be the new market entrants.
The reality is that the music industry has always been subject to shift, typically introduced by new formats. Some landmarks along the way … the introduction of piano rolls (1896), 78 RPM records (1906), 33 1/3 RPM records (1928), the LP (1948), the 7” single (1951), the cassette (1964), the 8-track (1966), the compact disc (1978), MTV (1981), the MP3 (1990), streaming (1995), Napster (1999), Pandora (2000), iTunes (2003), YouTube (2005), and Spotify (2008). If some of these dates sound earlier than you expected, well, let that be a lesson to you. These formats did not storm the industry and decimate it overnight.
The big shift occurred with the introduction of MP3 … and from thereon out it was downhill. We are literally talking an industry that, at the face of it, is used to format changes … and should have been far more agile given its history. The writing was on the wall and the industry failed to respond.
More examples
History is littered with stories of companies that fell by the wayside overnight as a consequence of the emergence of a new technology.
Who remembers the slide rule? For those young enough not to know what I am talking about, the slide rule was a ruler of sorts with a shifting bar in the centre that was used for doing math. The slide rule became extinct overnight as a consequence of the introduction of the pocket calculator. Here today, gone tomorrow!
Another classic example of a product that did not survive a shift in technology is the telex. The telex was replaced virtually overnight by the fax machine. The fax machine itself is now bordering on extinction, thanks to the introduction of the email. Again, for the youngsters, the telex network was a switched network of “teleprinters” similar to a telephone network, for the purposes of sending text-based messages. The telex had a speed of approximately 66 words per minute.
Its happening right now
Satellite and Cable TV coupled with the introduction of PVR recorders have pretty much sounded the death knell for the corner video store. The cinema industry is likewise seeing a falling off.
The future of the printed book is also in the balance. Sales of eBooks are on the up … and their printed counterpart is on the way down. Many periodicals have ceased doing a print version … and are now only available in the electronic format.
What do we learn?
The long and short of it … companies that fail to innovate will eventually cease to exist … it’s simply a matter of time. Innovation is not a once off event … it’s a survival prerequisite. Innovation is not a strategy; it’s a way of life.
When the writing is on the wall, you are advised to read it!
